News Releases for January 2002
January 7, 2002
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Hoeven Seeks Further Information On Census Bureau Estimate
BISMARCK, N.D. - Governor John Hoeven today announced that he has asked the U.S. Census Bureau to consider additional data before it finalizes a population estimate showing a 1.2 percent net decline in North Dakota’s population.
Hoeven said he questioned the accuracy of the estimate for several reasons. First, the estimate in 1999, right before the actual count in 2000, was 8,000 people too low. The estimate was then adjusted upward by about 8,000 for the count in 2000, yet is again down 8,000 just one year later in the most recent estimate.
“Again, we want to work to retain our people and attract more people,” Hoeven said. “The issue is that we want to make sure the count is accurate.”
Twelve states already do their own counts, or provide additional information to the Census Bureau, Hoeven said. North Dakota may need to consider providing additional information, as well.
Hoeven said the estimate is based on three factors:
- Net international migration, the number of people arriving from outside the United states. The estimate shows a slight increase of 0.1 percent in net international migration to North Dakota.
- Births over deaths. The estimate indicates that there were a 0.3 percent more births than deaths in North Dakota.
- Net domestic migration, a measure of how many people moved into or out of a state.
The decline shown in the Census Bureau’s estimate comes from net domestic migration, which is based on the number of U.S. federal income tax returns, Hoeven said. According to the Bureau, that number reflects a 1.6 percent decline. State income tax returns over just the past two years, however, increased by 6,400. It seems inconsistent that an increasing number of tax returns would indicate a drop in population, even with some long-term decline in family size, according to Hoeven.
“One wouldn’t expect a great discrepancy between the number of federal and state tax returns, especially since North Dakota’s tax system is federally based,” Hoeven said. According to Hoeven, “North Dakotans’ state taxes are calculated as a percentage of their federal obligation.”
In an effort to resolve the discrepancies, Hoeven last week requested additional information from the Bureau and provided the Bureau with additional state data. The Census Bureau information will be available late in the spring.
“Whether we lost population or whether the population is flat, we believe it’s important to be reasonably certain of the numbers,” Hoeven said. “We think that there is sufficient evidence from data other than that which the Census Bureau is working with to warrant a closer look. In any event, we will continue to be focused on economic development, education, a strong farm bill, energy, technology and all the other things that will build our state and its population.”
- North Dakota Population
(36kb pdf) - Number of North Dakota Individual Income Tax Returns
Filed (36kb
pdf)
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